This market resolves YES if Elon Musk appears (either in person or virtually) at an event organized by or featuring prominent far-right political figures or organizations before August 1, 2025.

To qualify:

1. The event must be primarily political in nature (rally, conference, fundraiser, etc.)

2. It must feature prominent far-right political figures or be organized by groups widely characterized as far-right by mainstream media

3. Musk must participate as a speaker, panelist, or special guest (not merely attending)

Examples of qualifying events would include rallies for far-right political parties (like Germany's AfD), conferences organized by far-right media or think tanks, or campaign events for politicians widely characterized as far-right.

Resolution will be based on reporting from major news outlets.

Relevant context: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2524589/elon-musk-addresses-german-far-right-rally-via-video-link

Background

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, and owner of X (formerly Twitter), has increasingly engaged in political activities. In recent years, Musk has shown willingness to participate in political events across the spectrum, with some notable appearances at events associated with right-wing politics.

For example, in 2024, Musk addressed a rally for Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party via video link. The AfD is widely characterized by mainstream media as a far-right political party. He has also interviewed AfD leader Alice Weidel on his platform X.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if before August 1, 2025, Elon Musk:

1. Appears (either in person or virtually) at an event that is primarily political in nature (rally, conference, fundraiser, etc.)

2. The event features prominent far-right political figures OR is organized by groups widely characterized as far-right by mainstream media

3. Musk participates as a speaker, panelist, or special guest (not merely attending)

Qualifying events include but are not limited to:

• Rallies for political parties widely characterized as far-right (e.g., Germany's AfD, France's National Rally)

• Conferences organized by far-right media outlets or think tanks

• Campaign events for politicians widely characterized as far-right

• Far-right political conventions (such as CPAC if it continues to feature far-right figures)

Resolution will be based on reporting from major news outlets. If Musk appears at an event that meets all criteria before August 1, 2025, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Considerations

The definition of "far-right" can be subjective and varies by country and context. For this market, an organization or figure will be considered far-right if they are consistently characterized as such by multiple mainstream media outlets.