Based on the Vance vs Walz debate today it does seem like it's Vance's (and his backers') endgame. I'd say it raises the probability of Vance getting the nomination regardless of the 2024 result.

🚀 New Market Alert! 🚀

big question is whether Trump will stick by this
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-wont-run-again-loses-november-election-rcna172147

I think it's Tucker Carlson, but please don't add as I've already bet "other" on that basis.

@JessicaEvans Other automatically gives you a bet on any new items! It's the best!

@JessicaEvans If we get enough request and polularity for Tucker, we'll add him. Meanwhile if you want to bet on Tucker, we have an option for him in another related market.

@predyx_markets surely very undervalued.

P(Trump wins) * P(Vance 2028 | trump win)

45% * 80%+

= 36%

Plus vance is a strong candidate imo.

@Daniel_MC This is the market for earlybirds.

@Daniel_MC but you also have to take a 4 year discount…

@polymathematic Nothing is stopping us from taking profits in the short term. If you strongly believe in a candidate, you can always buy low and sell high. 📈💡

@Daniel_MC love that you brought some math, but 80% is too high IMO. Historically, maybe the vice prez gets the nomination that often (I didn't check), but Trump has a history of throwing absolutely everyone who has ever worked for him under the bus, eventually.

@Daniel_MC 36 *JD Vance creepy weirdo factor = 15%

@Daniel_MC I don't think P(Vance 2028 | trump win) is nearly as high as 80%. He's also an incredibly weak candidate, though, given the current state of the GOP, I doubt that affects his chances of getting nominated.

Added 10K liquidity.