Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?
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Resolves to YES if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory is above 95% (incl. resolved to YES) or below 5% (incl. resolved to NO) for at least one week in a row. Resolves to NO when all humans born on or before 16 March 2025 are dead (according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people if it still exists, or whichever other source Manifold mods prefer if it doesn't), or if the market linked above resolves to N/A, or to a probability between 5% and 95%, and stays resolved for at least one week in a row. Resolves to N/A if none of the above occurs before the market closing date.
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The genetic samples of the early virus from Wuhan are all very similar, and appear to be highly adapted to humans.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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