This market is a derivative of the existing largest market about the laboratory release theory:
This is an unlinked market, where months can resolve independently.
If the original market resolves YES, all future months resolve YES. If the original market resolves NO, all future months resolve NO. Otherwise, a month resolves NO if it arrives without the original market having resolved YES. I will add new months as old months expire, and can add more months by request.
The original market must resolve and stay resolved to count for this market, so this does not include cases such as accidental misclick resolutions, rogue moderator misresolutions, etc. The original market creator intends to resolve their market only when they are certain of the truth and have conferred extensively with the manifold community, so we should not expect any cases of incorrect resolution and re-resolution. The creator cites “the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change”, which we can all agree is a settled matter.
In edge cases such as the market being N/A-ed or the creator permanently leaving manifold before the question can be resolved, I will attempt to still continue running this derivative market according to the spirit of the original question, conferring with the original market creator if possible and never resolving according to my own judgment of the question. If necessary, I will appoint an heir to run this market using the same methodology.
This market also includes meta-options about the other options. If you would like to submit an interesting meta option, let me know in a comment or DM and if I like it I'll use the new toggle Manifold just released to open the market for submissions so you can add it yourself and get unique trader bonuses for anyone who bets on it.
1,000
3.00This market was also horribly mispriced (imo) until I came and corrected it. Another point against citing low-quality prediction markets as strong evidence! (see https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory#p3D6KLWVNla3G4w5QZ5g)
@jack In my defense I think I had it reasonably priced for a while and then two days ago I saw the ecohealth thing posted at 3 am and quickly sold a bunch of no shares until I could look into it properly
@Joshua Ah, yeah, that makes more sense.
Note that my point was directed against blindly trusting prediction markets, not against you or the traders.
@Gabrielle is there a year that you would buy yes at, or do you just overall think the original market is too high?
@Joshua I’m pretty sure (~90%) the original market will never resolve YES or NO, so all date answers to this market will resolve NO.
Reasoning:
Isaac specifically stated “This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention”, so the default assumption is at least something like 10+ years
There’s enough evidence for alternative explanations other than lableak that there would need to be some new very strong evidence. But every day that goes by makes it harder for new evidence to be found, especially since the Chinese government seems to want it to remain not-clearly-a-lab-leak.
@Gabrielle I see! I've also now added
[The original market resolves NO before 2030]
[The original market resolves NO before 2080]
So that we can also get odds on that.