I will not bet.
I am happy to accept advice on how resolution criteria, but it seems that unless the President of South Korea specifies an end date in advance, martial law will continue until it is declared lifted.
1,000
3.00People are pointing out that if martial law is reinstated and holds until Jan 1st this will have incorrectly resolved.
While it was not my intention when I created the question, that is undeniably the case and I would certainly ask the mods to change the resolution if this happened.
So the question is, do market participants actually think this is plausible and that the question should be reopened? Or are people just making a very fair point that it shouldn't have been closed on principle?
For context I am in Taiwan and so created this market around 11pm and resolved it at 4am when I woke up and saw that Yoon had lifted martial law. I was just following my intention when creating the question.
What I don't see now is any of the experts I follow saying anything other than "Yoon is completely done". That's why my gut instinct is that reopening the market simply isn't worth it.
@JoshuaWilkes I'd say treat it's fine to treat as a provisional resolution - leave it resolved and reopen it only if martial law happens again or it otherwise looks like a significant possibility.
@JoshuaWilkes Hello, i betted at 4% and obviously i didnt think at the moment that there is a big chance of 4% event happening, and moreover after lifting the martial law. What i am talking about is that legally speaking you ressolved incorrectly and even with 0,1% possibility that somehow korea will go in martial law again before 1 january it should not be ressolved. As far as i understood, if this event however will happen, I will get my money back so now i feel fine. still as a matter of fact this is ressolved incorrectly although chance is as i said probably less than 1%
@mods @jack please can you reopen this question? As unlikely as it may seem, I am now seeing some discussion that Yoon tried to reinstitute martial law the day after he lifted it, and that he may still do something today. I think this makes trading at the 4% mark it closed at credible (even though I don't personally think it is at all likely)
@f3to is there any evidence that this is actually happening? Or is your position just that it's plausible that it will happen in the days to come?
Background
On December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law, citing the need to protect the country from alleged "communist forces" and anti-state activities. The declaration came amid accusations against the opposition party, though specific details about the duration and scope of the martial law remain unclear.
Considerations
This is an unprecedented situation in recent South Korean history
The duration of martial law may be influenced by various factors including:
Political reactions and potential legal challenges
International community response
Public protests or demonstrations
Constitutional Court rulings
The situation is rapidly developing and could change quickly based on domestic or international pressure
@MalachiteEagle Now the president needs to decide whether he’ll comply (which he’s constitutionally bound to do) or not (which he will if he thinks the military has the stomach for it). The minister of nat def, at least, seems on the pres’s side. https://www.hankyung.com/article/2024120423147
He could also ignore it. My guess is that’s what he’ll do. More would give people a schelling point to start seriously protesting.