Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2028, Elon Musk is elected to any public office in the United States as a member of the America Party. Verification will be based on official election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or relevant state election authorities.
Background
On July 5, 2025, Elon Musk announced the formation of the America Party, citing dissatisfaction with existing political structures and fiscal policies. The party aims to challenge the traditional two-party system and promote fiscal conservatism. Musk has indicated plans to focus on key congressional seats in upcoming elections. (reuters.com)
Considerations
As a naturalized U.S. citizen born in South Africa, Elon Musk is constitutionally ineligible to run for the office of President or Vice President. However, he is eligible to seek other public offices, such as a seat in the U.S. Congress or state-level positions. The success of the America Party in securing electoral victories remains uncertain, given the historical challenges faced by third-party movements in the U.S. political landscape. (time.com)
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the term "any public office" includes city and state level positions. For example, being elected mayor would count.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would generally not count an unopposed election.
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3.00@Gabrielle Yes, city and state offices count. For example, being elected mayor of Los Angeles would count.
@Nick6d8e I'll know it when I see it
I don't want to nitpick every type of office but I would generally not count an unopposed election.