The Political Fate of Elon

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Ṁ16k

2026

32%

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Dems win

20%

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Reps win

23%

Convicted of felony if Dems win

16%

Convicted of felony if Reps win

18%

X shut down/sold if Dems win

15%

X shut down/sold if Reps win

What will be the personal or financial repercussions of the 2024 Presidential Election to Elon Musk in 2025?

The above are a set of conditional markets on various actions that happen to either Elon Musk personally or any of his affiliated companies (SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, etc.) in 2025 as a result of which party wins the presidency in the upcoming election.

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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Elon musk

#Tesla

#Tech Celeb Gossip

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bought Ṁ1,000 NO

I have no idea why the feds would bother to fine Elon. It's more likely to be state AGs.

add "Gets deported” 💀

He is a US citizen, so he can't legally be deported. I suppose they could change the laws, but that seems quite unlikely.

Can you elaborate on the answers about fines? Are these fines specifically related to the election (e.g FEC or similar)? Are they any fines levied by the US government for any reason (e.g parking tickets)? Fines levied by any governmental entity whatsoever (e.g the Brazil stuff)?

@MattP Any fines from any government. Any settlements from any lawsuit (including class action lawsuits).

"No repercussions" for each conditional if D/R win

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