Donald Trump has claimed in May 2023:

"If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin”.

He later explained:

“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.

He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”

I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:

• The Russia-Ukraine war is still in an active phase when Trump is elected.

• Significant progress towards peace is reached by the end of the day after Trump's election. Examples would include the conclusion of a ceasefire with a commitment by both sides to more permanent peace talks while it holds, or the preliminary establishment of the details of a peace settlement agreeable to both sides. Trump talking to both sides, or presenting a peace plan that is not acceptable to one of the sides, does not suffice.

• The peace settlement reached in the first day is hammered out and officially signed within a month, without large-scale hostilities breaking out again.

• "Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. starts the negotiation process immediately after the election is called but only concludes it the day of his inauguration, this doesn't fall under the "within a day" claim.

The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.

The criteria are subjective to a degree - feel free to ask about particular cases.

See also: