Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2036
Here are markets with the same criteria:
Will we get AGI before 2024?NO
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
Will we get AGI before 2026?4%
Will we get AGI before 2027?18%
Will we get AGI before 2028?34%
Will we get AGI before 2029?52%
Will we get AGI before 2030?65%
Will we get AGI before 2031?66%
Will we get AGI before 2032?69%
Will we get AGI before 2033?69%
Will we get AGI before 2034?73%
Will we get AGI before 2035?74%
Will we get AGI before 2036?76% (this question)
Will we get AGI before 2037?78%
Will we get AGI before 2038?79%
Will we get AGI before 2039?78%
Will we get AGI before 2040?80%
Will we get AGI before 2041?81%
Will we get AGI before 2042?82%
Will we get AGI before 2043?83%
Will we get AGI before 2044?84%
Will we get AGI before 2045?87%
Will we get AGI before 2046?88%
Will we get AGI before 2047?89%
Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Related markets:
Will we get ASI before 2027?6%
Will we get ASI before 2028?8%
Will we get ASI before 2029?23%
Will we get ASI before 2030?16%
Will we get ASI before 2031?32%
Will we get ASI before 2032?40%
Will we get ASI before 2033?47%
Will we get ASI before 2034?54%
Will we get ASI before 2035?60%
Other questions for 2036:
Will a human walk on Venus before 2036?3%
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2036?86%
Will a human walk on Mars before 2036?40%
Will we discover alien life before 2036?18%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2036?34%
Will we get a cure for cancer before 2036?27%
Other points of reference for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?50%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?60%
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3.00If you're making a set of markets with identical criteria but different dates, then the unlinked multiple choice market format works really well!
Also, you can embed the market with a % display if you want (type '%' and then without a space start typing the market name to search), like this: Will we get AGI before 2031?66% .
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00