Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created before we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).
Numeric markets:
What year do we get fusion reactors?
AGI questions:
Will we get AGI before 2025?NO
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Will we get AGI before 2048?90%
Fusion questions:
Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?1%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?34%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?50%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?55%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?65%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?71%
Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?70%
Other reference points for AGI:
Will we get AGI before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?50%
Will we get AGI before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?40%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?33%
Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?69%
Will we get AGI before we get room temperature superconductors?83%
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?85%
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56% (this question)
Other reference points for fusion reactors:
Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?50%
Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven
The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.
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