Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first? | Manifold

Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?

Plus

30

Ṁ1495

10000

AGI54%

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves when either nuclear fusion reaches 1% of electricity globally, or when artificial general intelligence is reached. If none of these ever get achieved by humanity, this never resolves.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Different people can have very different definitions of AGI. Which one is used here?

Fusion as 1% of global energy production?

Here's free money if you think that's going to happen in the next 80 years.

Semi-related market for arbitration:

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2030?

+9% 1d61% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

+6% 1d62% chance

Will we get AGI before 2032?

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Will we get AGI before 2033?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?

Will we get AGI before 2031?

Will we get AGI before 2033?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

When will the first commercially viable nuclear fusion power plant be built?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Will we get AGI before 2035?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules