Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
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Ṁ4052032
17%
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Currently the highest is France at 1.84 (live births per woman). Note that the measure I'm using here is slightly different from "replacement rate" (which is 2.1).
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bought Ṁ10 YES9mo
Feels like a lot of crazy things can happen by that time, including new revolutionary fertility treatments, possible mass migration to Europe from population with high fertility, or at least one European country going super crazy hard in pro-fertility policies...
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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