This is a poll to determine what Manifold thinks the answer to the question in the title is. Definitions for this question: AGI: An artificial intelligent agent that is significantly better at acting in environments / decision making than humans in a broad set of domains. Alignment problem: getting the former to act in alignment with the goals of a group of humans (hopefully humanity as a whole). By 2100 is meant to limit resource input (no infinite time span brute forcing), but it doesn't have to be exact. 2105 would count. It is in part inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/is-risk-of-extinction-from-ai-1-in?r=VG9ieTk2 [link preview]Feel free to argue for or against in the comments. I may make and link derivative markets later.