Will Elon & Trump have a major falling out within 45 days of the inauguration?

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Jan 6

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To define falling out:

A dismissal from any positions associated to the White House
A public feud on any social media platform that results in a “block” of the other party by one of the other parties
more than 3 credible news reports indicating Musk is less close with Trump; only 2 are needed if a pejorative nickname is given to Elon

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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last criterion seems fairly broad

James fucked this

I added some criteria which is pretty broad, but open to suggestions

I extended the close time until before inauguration, is that okay with you?

bought Ṁ50 YES

holy shit lmao https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4987984-house-senate-republicans-leadership-election/

bought Ṁ250 NO

That is very soon.

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@Riley12 maybe 🤷

@Riley12 It's the period where Musk will be first exercising his infuence and pressing for more power within the administration. It'll be the first time that they need to work together in a meaningful way. That'll bring some stress.

On the other hand, the falling out has to go public for the market to know about it. Someone would have to be so fed up that they'll burn bridges. It's pretty quick for that.

@DanHomerick Even if things don't start well it's very likely Elon wouldn't take it public so soon

Edit: actually, this market needs more rules. Does some WaPo article alleging they had a major falling out count? I would think it would have to be from the mouth of Elon or Trump.

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